We’ve all heard the phrase “green is the new black,” but what about “CIVETS as the new BRIC?” Unlikely. Until now.

According to a recent Wall Street Journal article, the so-called CIVETS group of countries—Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa—are being touted as the next generation of “tiger economies.” But why?

1. These nations all have large, young populations with an average age of 27. This means these countries will benefit from fast-rising domestic consumption.
2. They also are all fast-growing, relatively diverse economies, meaning they shouldn’t be as heavily dependent on external demand as the BRICs.
3. HSBC Global Asset Management points to rising levels of foreign direct investment across the grouping, low levels of public debt—except for Turkey—and sovereign credit ratings moving toward investment grade.

However, critics say CIVETS countries have nothing in common beyond their youthful populations. They also say, liquidity and corporate governance are patchy and political risk remains a factor.

So let’s break it down by country and see what is happening:

Colombia: Colombia is emerging as an attractive destination for investors.

Indonesia: Indonesia weathered the global financial crisis better than most.

Vietnam: Vietnam has been one of the fastest-growing economies in the world for the past 20 years.

Egypt: Revolution may have put the brakes on the Egyptian economy but analysts expect it to regain its growth trajectory when political stability returns.

Turkey: Turkey has major natural-gas pipeline projects that make it an important energy corridor between Europe and Central Asia.

South Africa: Rising commodity prices, renewed demand in its automotive and chemical industries and spending on the World Cup have helped South Africa resume growth. Many see the nation as a gateway to investment into the rest of Africa.

(I just wish CIVETS rolled off the tongue as easily as BRIC.)

Over the last week, people around the world have been instantly struck by unbelievable scenes of turbulence in Egypt, as thousands have taken to the streets to protest against the current political regime.  In recent days things have gotten even uglier, too: American journalists have been assaulted, Molotov cocktails have been launched, and rocks and furniture have been hurled at protesters.  It’s not just the violence that’s the most surprising either – it’s the speed with which the political order in Egypt is being threatened.

But there is another significant part to the equation, and that is the alienation of the young people – primarily the young males – from the economic and political life of the country.

As we’ve seen for a while now, sex ratios are becoming skewed in much of the world thanks in part to a growing global imbalance of male-to-female ratios.  It is estimated that by 2020 there will be approximately 300 million more men than women in the world.  We’ve seen this demographic trend play out in China.  In Vietnam.  In South Korea.  A surplus of frustrated, low-status males is bound to spell trouble for society.  Some experts have argued that China might soon be bedeviled by an underclass group of malcontented single males who could stir up political instability or even armed revolts.  Sound familiar? It isn’t much different from what we currently see happening in Egypt.

In Egypt, the unemployment among young males (aged 15 to 29 years) was 32% in 2009.  In other words, one in three young men were out of a job….and, because of increased education, many more were affected by underemployment. Clearly, growing unemployment has led to insecurity over their future, which to many, seems bleak.  But when you take a generation of young males who have no future, and have no outlet for their aggression (and testosterone), a range of potentially dangerous problems could occur.

Another primary reason for disillusionment among the youth is the perceived weakness of the state’s developmental role.  Because they have no way to vent their discontent to the “ruling elite,” they become more alienated.  And if the youth do not feel like services are extended to them – whether it’s a quality education or opportunity for employment – their connection and allegiance to the state and the regime will falter considerably.  Add to this the fact that many of the youth fear that the only means for social mobility is through criminal or corrupt means, i.e. bribery, nepotism or by bypassing the law entirely.

So the question then becomes this:  What do we do with the young males?  As we’re seeing now, testosterone-fueled aggressiveness can disrupt or even tear apart societies that don’t find ways to channel those drives into activities that aren’t destructive to the communities.  In a worst case scenario, it may be that countries afflicted by the imbalance could to go to war as a means of sending young men’s aggressiveness to where it can do no harm internally.

As we look at what is happening in Egypt politically, socially and economically, a combination of frustration with the existing system, a yearning for democracy, a desire to participate in decision-making and general dissatisfaction have all come together  to create the current situation on the streets.  An important lesson here, too, is the realization that if the interests of the young – especially the young males – are not taken care of, political stability in any country can be threatened.  So this may be just the beginning.

The emergence of a global “She-conomy” will have a major impact on everything from education to marketing and branding to fertility levels. There are already many more women than men enrolled in and graduating from universities. Women have just overtaken men in the U.S. as the majority in the workforce. Women increasingly serve as household breadwinners and white-collar executives – and they are widely considered the most powerful and growing demographic with respect to global consumer power. Many indicators point toward women comprising a greater percentage of white-collar professional positions going forward, while men who have been displaced will need to find alternatives – perhaps through vocational training or entering trade professions.

In the “she-conomies” that are emerging, communication and leadership styles that resonate with, inspire and include women will also be in greater demand.

Here are some noteworthy statistics:

• Women account for more than half of college students and half the work force, which has delayed motherhood and marriage. For the first time, a majority of mothers, 54 percent, have a college education, up from 41 percent in 1990.
• Women have suffered less than men in this recession. They were more likely to be in health care and other sectors/jobs that were not hit as hard as construction and manufacturing. They are also increasingly likely to have the education required. One in five men 25 to 54 is not working. The jobs that many of these men once had will not return. Institutional demand for workers with limited education is waning.
• Globally, women total $13 trillion in yearly earnings and could reach $18 trillion in the next five years, representing a growth market twice as big as China and India combined.  But many women still feel underestimated and undervalued in the workplace, and few companies have responded to their need for time-saving solutions. While more mothers are working, more have considerable guilt about leaving their children at home. Thirty-four percent of mothers with kids under the age of 18 opt out of the workforce altogether, thereby depriving the workforce of a vital source of talent.
• Japan is suffering from a productivity problem because they are squandering one of the world’s best educated labor forces on mundane jobs that do little to make the economy grow. Japan’s ability to emerge from the recession will depend partly on its ability to make its service sector – which makes up 70% of Japan’s economy – more productive. Evidence of low productivity in the service sector is everywhere. Retailers employ twice the average number of workers as their peers in other countries. Women are central to this issue because they are placed in menial jobs, and their talents and skills are wasted.
• 1 billion additional middle class women expected to enter the global economy over the next decade. If China and India each represent 1 billion emerging participants in the global marketplace, then this “third billion” is made up of women, in both developing and industrialized nations, whose economic lives have previously been stunted, under-leveraged, or suppressed.
• We are also learning more about the impact of testosterone levels in the workplace. We have long known the link between males and testosterone, but we are now learning more about how it applies to women. However, we have yet to discover the relationship between high testosterone women and productivity.

After all that has happened these past few years with respect to the global recession, pundits everywhere are concerned with predicting when, where and how the next subprime-like “bubble” will occur. Speculation runs rampant, as analysts who adhere to determinist principles assume they can accurately predict the next iteration/s of such an economic bubble.  Two interesting examples of sectors where some analysts see warning signs are listed below:

1) Microfinance in India Lending to the poor has proven so profitable in India that microfinance institutions saw their loan portfolio jump from $252 million to $2.5 billion in two years, raising fears of a subprime-like microfinance bubble. Critics say that the expansion has been too large, too fast, and too geographically concentrated – pointing to incidents of mass default in pockets of the country.With an estimated 400 million people lacking access to formal banking services, India is considered one of the world’s largest microfinance markets.

2) Higher Education in the U.S. The Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee has initiated a new investigation into federal investment in higher education. Congress last instituted reforms in the for-profit education sector two decades ago, but federal aid to students at for-profit schools has rapidly increased, approaching $24 billion last year – with an additional $36 billion Pell Grant boost approved in March. A report released recently by chairman Senator Tom Harkin found that up to 90% of for-profit schools’ revenue comes from Washington and that for-profit students are graduating with more debt than students at public or private nonprofit universities. With 96% of proprietary students taking out loans, and nearly half of them defaulting, taxpayers foot the bill. At current increasing enrollment and loan rates, there could be $330 billion in defaults in the coming decade. According to some analysts, government money, lightly supervised institutions, unchecked supervising bodies and debt-trapped students all sound similar to the subprime-mortgage collapse.

Are these analysts shrewdly observing the makings of future bubbles, or are they serving more as alarmists who capitalize on today’s climate of fear among the general public? Whatever the answer, we are undoubtedly going to see increasing speculation, and consequently — more industries/sectors coming under fire from global regulatory bodies.

Last summer, WEB authored an important working paper called The Transposition of East & West. Based on some relevant recent happenings, now is a great time to revisit the theme.

Issue Summary:

Currently,  we are seeing a two-way transposition of not only traditional Western values, traits, and characteristics on Eastern cultures (via “Westernization,” or “Americanization”) – but traditionally Eastern values, traits, and characteristics on Western cultures to an extent perhaps unforeseen in recent times. This bilateral shift is happening in profound ways. Indeed, not only is the world’s economic influence shifting, but core values – as they pertain to civil liberties, religion, education, and technology – are also in flux. Eastern cultures traditionally perceived as more conservative are opening up, while Western cultures traditionally viewed as more progressive are becoming more restrictive.

Putting a macro-lens on the economic portion of this theme, a 2008 report by the National Intelligence Council states among several relative certainties that between now and 2025, the unprecedented shift in relative wealth and economic power from West to East will continue. The report also states that the U.S. will remain the most powerful country in the world, but will be less dominant.

Recent Developments:

Updating this paper, we see that even the core Western tenet that is freedom of expression has been somewhat turned on its head with some important recent developments:

• Here in the U.S, there has been much attention given to the blurred issue of free-speech (or potential lack thereof) in the mass media with the recent South Park furor. There is also the recent resurfacing of the free speech issue — specifically within social media — among those serving in the military as it pertains to criticism of the government.

• Abroad, we have seen some surprising developments in the Middle East, where free speech (particularly as it pertains to religion) has often been quite restrictive. Hissa Hilal, a Saudi Arabian woman recently blasted Muslim clerics on live TV on a program called “Million’s Poet” — an Arabic reality TV program similar to “American Idol,” but instead based in expression through poetry. Hilal has obviously become a very polarizing figure from those who either applaud her bravery or criticize her outspokenness. Regardless, this type of issue would have been virtually unheard of in an Arabic country only a few years ago.

Consider Some Implications…

Implications of this theme are manifold. For example, in our original paper we discussed how many of the world’s largest consumer goods firms have begun adopting the process of “trickle-up innovation.” This entails creating entry-level goods for emerging markets and then repackaging them quickly and cheaply for sale in rich nations, where customers are increasingly hungry for bargains. While this concept is not all that new, it should be reemphasized in the context of this theme. Will execs at global companies fight to retain the more ingrained status quo, or will they embrace trickle-up innovation strategies?

Companies and organizations that operate globally will now have to navigate a new landscape when managing cultural norms within the global workforce, with global professionals, and among the global consumer market. Norms, values, and expectations have shifted. The terms “free market,” “civil liberties,” “innovation” and “gender equality” will be among the many that will no longer conjure up stereotypes of governments, populations, corporations or regions. East/West mixes of management, policymakers, board directors, committee members and marketers, designers and product developers will become extremely beneficial if any significant-sized entity wants to remain nimble and viable as it navigates through this transposition.