Communities used to meet in town squares to buy, sell and swap goods. For a while, that model all but disappeared, but thanks to a host of new social networks and other web platforms, people can now trade, swap, rent or barter goods, skills, services or expertise with considerable ease.

Shift from owning to renting has been a common topic in the news.  In fact, Rachel Botsman’s book  ”What’s Mine is Yours: The Rise of Collaborative Consumption” presents a compelling case for 21^st century sharing.  Check out her video from the recent TED conference:

To some, this may look like the purse-tightening aftershocks of the economic recession – for financial reasons, renting something often makes more sense than buying it.  But what we are seeing emerge is a more fluid approach towards ownership, and a dramatic shift in consumption habits.  In fact, purchasing products altogether – regardless of price and/or size – is losing some of its allure.

But it’s not just about changing our consumption habits; it’s also about a widespread value shift. A shift from valuing possessions to valuing usage.  A shift from valuing ownership to valuing access. There is also the social aspect.  By sharing our things, we are exhibiting a sense of sociability. In an era when families are scattered around the country and people may not know the people down the street, sharing things – even with online strangers – allows people to make meaningful connections.

As is the case with collaborative consumption, we here at WEB like giving new concepts new names…and therefore creating our own vocabulary.  In the interest of this revamped concept, we are referring to it as “self-secondary markets” because of how the end-consumer is shifting — in fact, the consumer itself, rather than then company or brand, is the one creating the secondary market.

There is tremendous activity in this space right now.  Here are a few examples:

• RelayRides helps car owners rent their vehicles to other people.  It’s similar to Zipcar, but without the fleet;
• The Ritz Carlton’s Loan-A-Lab program provides guests a yellow Labrador to “borrow” for hiking and other types of excursions;
• Peer-to-peer money-lending through Zopa.com allows people to completely sidestep the banks.  The default rate is also less than 1%.

The growth of self-secondary markets represents a new and potentially highly lucrative value-add for companies and organizations looking to expand and redefine traditional ways of conducting business.  In a time of collaborative consumption and growing competition, access to the consumers may well be the most valuable asset to a business.

Erica’s second article was posted yesterday on Yahoo! Sports’ new online magazine, ThePostGame.com. Recently, we wrote a Working Paper on social contagion — when a behavior or attitude passes from one person to a group, or vice versa.  But what effect does this have on the world of sports?  According to the article:

You’ve heard the saying that when one person yawns, everyone starts yawning. And perhaps you’ve heard of the study showing that better goal celebrations create better chances of winning. One person’s behavior can affect the whole group. That’s not just the “chemistry” term you hear thrown around on sports radio. That’s science.

Word of mouth has been shifting to “word of keyboard” for a while. Studies have shown that weight gain, drug and alcohol use, even loneliness and depression are powerfully contagious via online networks. That’s been known for some time, but what’s being shown now is how a behavior can be spread not only to the recipient of an e-mail, text or social network sharing function, but to anyone who reads about a behavior. So when an athlete rips someone on Twitter, it’s just as powerful as if he rips that person to his face. In fact, it might even be more damaging, as outsiders will catch the blame contagion and start thinking negatively about that player or the entire team. Then fans will react by ranting on their own Twitter accounts, which are sometimes read (and internalized) by athletes themselves.

Well, it turns out, this phenomenon has been gathering steam for a while.  And because of the ubiquitous nature of social networking sites and personalized mobile technology, the reality is that social contagion will only increase.

Today, Yahoo! Sports launched ThePostGame.com, a daily magazine that will publish lengthy articles and reports on athlete style, sports technology, and a new blog called FutureSport.  Today, Erica’s article debuted on the site.  Take a look her piece on “Color Schemes:”

What gives a team an extra edge in a big game? Is it the athleticism? The coaching? The chemistry? Or could it be color?

We all know how Boise State University painted its football field blue as a way to draw attention to the school. It worked. And the team has won on that field – a lot. Since the dawn of the blue turf, the team has not lost a home WAC game, it is 77-2 at home since 1999, and Boise is now a national power despite its small size and budget. Coincidence? Maybe not.

The use of color – and how it resonates in the brain – is still a fairly new science, and we don’t yet fully understand its power. But color has long been a part of sports culture. We associate our favorite sports teams by hue: the Red Wings, White Sox, Cleveland Browns, the Delaware Blue Hens and Syracuse Orange (my personal favorite for obvious reasons) are among a few teams to incorporate color into their name. And the meaning behind color affects nearly every area of life: clothing, graphic design, packaging, food choices, etc. But color can also be a powerful psychological tool. It can be used to send a positive or negative message, encourage sales, calm or incite a crowd, or even make an athlete pump more iron.

In academic circles, this is known as semiotics – or, in other words, the study of signs and symbols. That includes color. Uniforms, equipment, team logos, and even stadiums all employ the “psychology of color” as a way to convey messages — whether they know it or not. This is similar to the way that the color of your car reveals a lot about you: your personality, your traits, and even how satisfied you are with your life.

So when we look at the connection between sports and color, what does all of this mean? Research has shown that women from the U.S., Germany and China find men more attractive and desirable when they are pictured in red. (I argue the same can be said of men, as women have long-known the power a red dress and some red lipstick.) Another piece of research found that referees are biased in favor of athletes who wear red. It has also been found that wearing red is linked to a higher probability of winning across a range of sports. Some years ago, a study of 56 seasons of English soccer found that, on average, teams in red won more home games than teams in other colors. Another report showed boxers dressed in red often performed better. Perhaps this is because our perception of red has an evolutionary basis, with our forebears knowing it as the color of blood, power and danger. Athletes may have a subconscious reaction when they see opponents wearing red, putting them at an inherent disadvantage.

Does this mean sports teams should wear more red? Maybe so. When opponents are equally matched, the effect of color can be enough to tip the balance in the favor of the team wearing red. As semiotics advances, maybe we will see NBA and MLB teams take after the NHL and NFL, in which the darker color is usually worn at home. But a disclaimer: when there is a clear talent advantage, color has no effect on outcome. Sorry, but there will be no color doping scandal.

As for blue? Some studies are now showing weight-lifters can lift more in a blue gym. In fact, almost all types of sports performance are enhanced in blue surroundings. People tend to be more productive in a blue setting because they are calm and focused on the task at hand. (This is probably good news for travelers on JetBlue.)

Does that mean Boise State is more calm and focused than opponents? Could be. Blue also fosters creativity, and we’ve seen what head coach Chris Petersen can do with play-calling under pressure. Of course the sample size is too small to make conclusions, so athletic directors might want to wait for more information before heading out to the Behr or Glidden outlet. And there’s really no viable response for teams like the Tulane Green Wave. But perhaps eventually Michigan should sub out its Maize Rage fan section for a Blue Crew. And maybe the Detroit Lions should paint Ford Field blue; they have nothing more to lose.

Either way, expect more and more teams to get an edge by wearing red and painting the town blue. Though be careful. Eastern Washington recently colored its football field red. With too much wear and tear, the Eagles may be playing on pink.

There will be more to come on the future of sports, so stay tuned.

As the world enters the next stages of technological revolution, what we are beginning to unravel about the universe is rapidly propelling us to the frontiers of the unknown.  Now, and in the years to come, all of our bodies of understanding will be profoundly changed.  What we did, what we made, what we believed and what we valued are all undergoing fundamental transformation.  What we measure, still, is what we can see, what we can touch, and what we can replicate.  These measurements are no longer appropriate and effective for the world into which we are moving.  We are only beginning to realize that we need to learn how to measure different things differently if we are to thrive as people and as institutions.

Recently, we have heard a lot come through the pipeline as it relates to the Theory of Everything, String Theory and the Akashic Field.  All, in essence, claim that every point in space is connected with every other point; and every thing with every other thing. Other theories are gaining more mainstream traction, too.  The growing field of Evolutionary Panpsychism, for instance, posits that consciousness is universal and applies to all things.  This thinking represents a revaluation of the natural world in which human and non-human are one.  If our thinking shifts to view the world so holistically – with no duality between humans and nature – what are the ethical consequences? Will this eventually serve as a source for more compassionate and ecological values?

Many believe human communication and interaction is limited to our sensory channels.  Our views and experiences are restricted by our own senses.  The human, for instance, only sees within a small portion of the light spectrum.  The five senses are the key instruments that we have in life to perceive the world and make our way within it.  We are just beginning to learn how to unleash our higher – or heightened – forms of seeing and hearing that could link us to the greater universe of consciousness, just as our outer senses connect us to the external world.

We are learning that we are linked by more subtle and encompassing connections as well.  For all of human history, the wider universe of waves, frequencies and vibrations was virtually unexplored…until now.  Here are a couple of examples:

• In the laboratory, modern people display a capacity for spontaneous transference of impressions and images, especially when they are emotionally close to each other.
• Reliable evidence is becoming available that the conscious mind of one person can produce repeatable and measurable effects on the body of another.
• Intercessory prayer and spiritual healing, together with other mind- and intention-based experiments and practices, yield impressive evidence regarding the effectiveness of telepathic and telesomatic information- and energy-transmission.
• The chanting of monks and the sounds absorbed in the womb from the mother have long been known to affect the physical being, but imaging research is now confirming the effects on the brain and development.
• Questions about what is happening to bee populations around the world – populations vital to the food chain – often center around the effects of confusing signals in the environment, disorienting them.
• New forms of therapy are emerging which are being used as personal tools for growth, transformation and healing: sound healing, consciousness healing, transcendental meditation, magnet therapy, chakra clearing and balancing, out-of-body experiences, clairvoyance and ascension, pranic healing and seichim (learning how to harness personal energy systems and living light energy).

The fusion of cosmology, quantum physics, quantum biology, neuroscience and parapsychology (among many other factors) are now beginning to reveal that our bodies and minds are not just biochemical systems. This convergence of seemingly disparate fields of study may in fact provide a physical-scientific basis for universal consciousness. Further, it demonstrates that certain spiritual or transcendental states of collective consciousness could have a valid basis within scientific circles. This delicate interplay is also dramatically altering our traditional notions of time and space.

What we are seeing is that a new form of spirituality is arising, not out of ideology, but out of scientific hypotheses and applications, especially as science gives more nods to the non-linear, non-rational and non-tangible.  Concepts like virtual, interconnected or appropriate (appropriate technology (AT) is designed with particular consideration to the environmental, ethical, cultural, social, political, and economical aspects of the community it is intended for) could likely gain a new significance. The “science of spirituality” will continue to evolve, especially as the lines between the two become increasingly blurred.

In an effort to boost employee productivity, more companies are now formally encouraging their employees to nap during the workday — in some cases, even providing designated areas meant for employee napping. Nike and Google are among those leading the charge in this area.

For a long time, encouraging “sleeping on the job” would have been considered counter-intuitive to productivity. However, a growing body of research indicates that productivity increases as people are better-rested. A recent Stanford study suggests that Americans average fewer than 7 hours of sleep per night (far fewer than are recommended to be both healthy and productive), and around 20 percent of Americans suffer from sleepiness during the day. As a result, companies in aggregate can save several billions of dollars per year.

In many cases, people report to work without receiving the proper amount of sleep the night before, and this actually hurts their overall productivity and ability to focus on the tasks at hand. The causes of sleep deprivation and fatigue are complex and manifold: sleep-related disorders like insomnia, family-issues (e.g., feeding schedules of babies and young children), commuting, excessive recreation on “work-nights,” and the compounding nature of being both overworked and overstressed at the office.

Take for example, the following scenario: If an employee works for 7 hours and naps for one during the middle of the day, then that employee may very well get more accomplished — and the quality of work may improve — versus someone who works for a full 8 hours per day but is over-tired. Also consider the physiological reality that many employees feel fatigued in the afternoon hours after lunch — and this could serve as a perfect time for companies to offer their employees a much-needed siesta.

Many progressive and forward-thinking companies have already begun to encourage on-the-job napping. It could very well be that these companies stand to gain a tangible competitive advantage in the future as their employees become more productive on a day-to-day basis. Also consider that in a day and age where employees (specifically younger ones) care about corporate culture more than ever, companies who have on-the-job napping policies and/or novel office space that accommodates relaxation stand to attract more and better talent in the long-term.

Most importantly, will friends and family members become jealous of one another over policies like this? I don’t know too many people that would argue with a workplace napping policy — or who would not resent those around them who benefited from such policies! Picture the benefits package of the future: 401(k) matching, gym memberships, generous group health and dental plans, on-site childcare facilities…and of course, a state-of-the-art napping facility! It’s already starting to happen…

Storytelling is as old as human history.  Traditionally, we have thought of all stories as having a beginning, a middle and an end.  But it appears that the non-linear approach is becoming more common in the world today.  The popular filmmaker, Christopher Nolan, exemplifies this approach in his movies.  Back in 2000, his film Memento told the story of a man whose memory does not exist.  The film’s events unfold in two separate, alternating narratives – one in color, and the other in black and white. The black and white sections are told in chronological order, and the color sequences are told in reverse chronological order.  In Nolan’s most recent film, Inception, non-linear storytelling forces the audience on a journey through a world where technology exists to enter the human mind through many levels of dream invasion.

But this trend is not only true in storytelling and movies.  The idea that there are definitive beginning, middle and end stages to an individual’s life is also shifting.  People are now more likely to quit work and go back to school or retire and then take up a new career than ever before.  As we have seen over and over again, life is less and less likely to follow a linear path.  This will only become more common as the average life span grows longer. The move away from a linear life path for younger people is partially reflective of their expectations that you can invent your own story, choose your own endings, and not wait until the end for rewards.

It is possible that in the networked world in which we now live, and in which connections are now made in a web-like pattern as opposed to a straight line, we will continue to move away from linear narratives in many aspects of our lives.  As children and youth, with their more malleable brains, develop in an increasingly networked world, it does not seem unreasonable to assume that they will be comfortable creating and functioning in a culture where non-linear narratives are the norm.  If young brains start out processing information in a non-linear fashion, then it may be possible that growing up in a networked world will encourage the brain to stay with that sort of processing.

An increasingly non-linear path in the life cycle will add to the difficulty of raising a family, which is already increasing as a result of the incredibly dynamic culture in which we live.  Individuals, lacking a norm or standard to compare themselves to at various times in their lives, will question if they are doing the right thing at the right time.  In the workplace, boredom is likely to increase for those who can’t stick with a linear narrative.  The gamer generation will require the re-framing of tasks so as to inspire them and allay their boredom and disinterest.  This will present a challenge to managers unable to adapt to the non-linear approach.  Schools, too, must make changes – the old methods of teaching do not reach, or prepare, students living in an increasingly web-structured world.

And just as all of us may be increasingly confused in the world in which we now live, confusion reigns in the lives of the young.  But what is also confusing is the way in which we define “youth” in the coming economy. Up through the last half of the 20th century, adolescence was viewed as an important life stage that marked the transition years between childhood and adulthood.  The modern life cycle came to contain multiple phases of youth:  infancy, toddler, childhood, adolescence, late teens and early adulthood.  What is emerging in the early years of the 21st century is a blending of these phases, and an extension of youth into what we might have considered full adulthood.

As the lines become increasingly blurred, absolute demarcations between populations and generations will no longer exist.  Demographic variables will be increasingly hard to quantify – lines become more nebulous.  Tangible definitions of household, income level, age, gender, race and ethnicity, employment status, religious affiliation, location, educational attainment, mobility, marital status, will all be inadequate for the nonlinear world into which we are moving.

We have long said it’s not what you know, but what you are capable of learning.  What we know is the result of the baggage of knowledge we’ve accumulated over time, which helps to shape our views of the world.  But what we are capable of learning is an entirely different story.  In a changing world, one of the ways to be efficient and effective is by not only abandoning all information that is no longer useful, but by abandoning information that is no longer necessary.

When thinking about the change process, the hundredth-monkey effect comes to mind. The hundredth-monkey effect is a supposed phenomenon in which a learned behavior spreads instantaneously from members of one group to all related, once a critical number is reached.  The thought is when a group with a certain set of behaviors becomes large enough, they have an influence on the behavior of other groups, despite any direct contact.  Generally speaking, it refers to the instantaneous spreading of an idea or ability to the remainder of a population once a certain portion of that population has heard of the new idea or learned the new ability.

When a critical mass — the presumed 100th monkey — acquires the skill, the awareness suddenly spreads to every member of the group. Urban legend attributes the rapid spread to paranormal means, while marketers refer to the 100th monkey as the tipping point where enough early adopters have used a product that it finally becomes mainstream.

The 100th Monkey Effect is not only telling in terms of how new business concepts, products and services take hold, but also the ways in which new thoughts and beliefs are transmitted.  To me, the lesson here is this:  We must recognize and revel in what we don’t know in order to discover new things…new possibilities…new realities…and new futures.  Somehow through life’s experiences we put up walls and barriers and forget how to see through new eyes.  Or we are influenced by others and taught to see things in a certain way.   This is just some food for thought, but what is your take on this?

In response to skyrocketing food prices, more and more people – both at home and at work – are growing their own food.  As a result, sales of vegetable plants and fruit producing trees and shrubs have jumped.  In the United States, spending on vegetable plants rose 21 percent to $58 per household in 2008, and spending on herbs gained 45 percent to $32 . And according to a National Gardening Association survey done in conjunction with Harris, 41 million Americans grew fruits and vegetables in 2009. That’s about 13 percent more than the year before.

Food swapping, in which people barter food for other edibles they don’t have in their own respective pantries, is also gaining in popularity. In London, an annual event called The Great Food Swap attracts hundreds of people looking to exchange their homemade goods. Events such as these also foster a unique sense of community.

But what was once thought of as a backyard pastime, is now gaining in popularity in corporate office backyards, too. As companies have less to spend on raises and health benefits, a fashionable new perk is emerging: the organic corporate vegetable garden. Carved from rolling green office park turf or tucked into containers on rooftops and converted smoking areas, these corporate plots of dirt spring from growing attention to sustainability and a rising interest in gardening. But they also reflect an economy that calls for creative ways to build workers’ morale and health.

For instance, Google, Yahoo and Sunset magazine have all started organic gardens.  But the trend has also caught on at more-traditional companies, too, such as PepsiCo. At the headquarters for the Kohl’s department stores near Milwaukee, the organic gardens provide vegetables for a local food bank and a place for children at the company child care center to play.  Aveda offers on-site massage and organic cafeteria food at its headquarters, and employees can take home fresh produce.

Embedded in all of this is a general concern about food.   Whether related to climate change, water pressures, population growth, changed eating habits, blights, diversion of arable land to production of alternative commodities for uses other than food, mismanagement of resources, waste, alterations of nature or pollution, the pressures on food are mounting, the prices are rising, and the concerns are escalating.

For any organization, there are a number of starting points for discussion and accountability:
•    In what ways do we (our practices, products, services or members) contribute to food waste, and how can that be addressed and combated?
•    In what ways are we encouraging infrastructure development that allows for more efficient and effective delivery of food to those in need?
•    In what ways are we contributing to research and development, and financial accounting and capital deployment, that support the production of food?
•    In what ways are we encouraging people to eat more moderately and reduce their demands for food?
•    In what ways are we encouraging indigenous populations to steward their lands and food resources in more effective ways?

In our work (and detailed in our book FutureThink), we have found that societal events and trends frequently conform to mathematical concepts.  It’s also a tangible way to get your head around large issues, and see the big picture.

The Law of Large Numbers is one of those concepts.  We learn it in high school.  But very few people tend to appreciate the importance of this fundamental mathematical principle.  Basically, put in simple terms, the larger the number of trials, the higher the probability of a statistically projected outcome.  For instance, if you toss a coin 10 times, you might get heads three times and tails seven.  But if you toss it 1,000 times, you are more likely to approach 500 heads and 500 tails.

What this means in a larger context is that the larger the sample, the more likely a critical mass is to develop around outlying probabilities.  Networks grow more powerful as more people connect to it.  In other words, it’s all about critical mass.  Once you have a critical mass, probabilities of everything increase, and more people are attracted to it.  What was once the extreme moves closer to normality.

We see this now in everything from investing to the likelihood of homosexuality to smartphone preferences to female contraception to health insurance to online gaming, etc.  This is also an important factor in projecting the value of niche markets, the trajectory of political causes, the potential for corporate theft, the future of the luxury market, peer pressure, brand loyalty, technological adaptation, financial and consumer products, terrorism, crime and deviance…and the list goes on and on.

But what the Law of Large Numbers does, more than anything, is reduce the possibility for surprise.  It helps you from being caught off-guard.  When you think about the business you are in, how can the Law of Large Numbers teach you more about your consumer/customer base?  How can it impact the work that you do?  Thoughts…

Last summer, WEB authored an important working paper called The Transposition of East & West. Based on some relevant recent happenings, now is a great time to revisit the theme.

Issue Summary:

Currently,  we are seeing a two-way transposition of not only traditional Western values, traits, and characteristics on Eastern cultures (via “Westernization,” or “Americanization”) – but traditionally Eastern values, traits, and characteristics on Western cultures to an extent perhaps unforeseen in recent times. This bilateral shift is happening in profound ways. Indeed, not only is the world’s economic influence shifting, but core values – as they pertain to civil liberties, religion, education, and technology – are also in flux. Eastern cultures traditionally perceived as more conservative are opening up, while Western cultures traditionally viewed as more progressive are becoming more restrictive.

Putting a macro-lens on the economic portion of this theme, a 2008 report by the National Intelligence Council states among several relative certainties that between now and 2025, the unprecedented shift in relative wealth and economic power from West to East will continue. The report also states that the U.S. will remain the most powerful country in the world, but will be less dominant.

Recent Developments:

Updating this paper, we see that even the core Western tenet that is freedom of expression has been somewhat turned on its head with some important recent developments:

• Here in the U.S, there has been much attention given to the blurred issue of free-speech (or potential lack thereof) in the mass media with the recent South Park furor. There is also the recent resurfacing of the free speech issue — specifically within social media — among those serving in the military as it pertains to criticism of the government.

• Abroad, we have seen some surprising developments in the Middle East, where free speech (particularly as it pertains to religion) has often been quite restrictive. Hissa Hilal, a Saudi Arabian woman recently blasted Muslim clerics on live TV on a program called “Million’s Poet” — an Arabic reality TV program similar to “American Idol,” but instead based in expression through poetry. Hilal has obviously become a very polarizing figure from those who either applaud her bravery or criticize her outspokenness. Regardless, this type of issue would have been virtually unheard of in an Arabic country only a few years ago.

Consider Some Implications…

Implications of this theme are manifold. For example, in our original paper we discussed how many of the world’s largest consumer goods firms have begun adopting the process of “trickle-up innovation.” This entails creating entry-level goods for emerging markets and then repackaging them quickly and cheaply for sale in rich nations, where customers are increasingly hungry for bargains. While this concept is not all that new, it should be reemphasized in the context of this theme. Will execs at global companies fight to retain the more ingrained status quo, or will they embrace trickle-up innovation strategies?

Companies and organizations that operate globally will now have to navigate a new landscape when managing cultural norms within the global workforce, with global professionals, and among the global consumer market. Norms, values, and expectations have shifted. The terms “free market,” “civil liberties,” “innovation” and “gender equality” will be among the many that will no longer conjure up stereotypes of governments, populations, corporations or regions. East/West mixes of management, policymakers, board directors, committee members and marketers, designers and product developers will become extremely beneficial if any significant-sized entity wants to remain nimble and viable as it navigates through this transposition.