Urban Chinese society is also undergoing changes, as the rituals of courtship, and traditional definitions of family, are challenged.  Rapid modernization has led the country to undergo enormous changes.  Sex ratios are becoming skewed in much of the world thanks in part to a growing global imbalance of male-to-female ratios.  It is estimated that by 2020 there will be approximately 300 million more men than women in the world.

China has seen an increase in the number of bachelors because there are not enough women for their men to marry.  Currently, there are 120 boys born for every 100 girls, an imbalance reinforced by the one-child policy and a cultural preference for sons.  The normal male/female rate at birth is 105 males for every 100 females.  Gender imbalances will have a profound impact on everything from family to education to the economy. Because of the disproportionate number of men in China, this may also create an upsurge of problems related to the trafficking of women, forced marriages, prostitution and surrogate motherhood.

India’s rate is about the same as China’s.  And throughout West and Southeast Asia, the trend is similar—in Vietnam, for example, the rate is now 111/100.

In addition, a surplus of young males competing for scarcer women will almost certainly result in increased violence. In the meantime, there is likely to be a backlash against women working outside the home, as the Chinese males will need to compete for the better jobs in order to attract desirable (or any) women.  Since women have made tremendous strides in the economic advancement of China, it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

By 2020, China will find itself with 30 million more men of marrying age than women. But what else could this imbalance mean?  Here are 4 other hypotheses:

1. A rise in imported mail-order brides

2. An uptick in gay relationships: Homosexuality is not especially well-tolerated in China, but that could change as men — and society — run out of options. Currently, it’s believed that 90 percent of the estimated 25 million gay Chinese men marry women. Some gay couples are even marrying lesbian couples.

3. A real estate bubble: As women become scarce and harder to impress, men may be forced to attract mates with premium real estate.

4. A war to thin out excess men: Chinese officials are clearly worried about the gender imbalance, and if their current propoganda-based efforts to dissuade parents from killing or aborting female offspring don’t work, a war to cull the surplus males is in the realm of possibilities. A surplus of frustrated, low-status males is bound to spell trouble for society. A generation of single, more affluent and independent women will not only change employment demographics, but will also affect family and household formation.

Yesterday we had our quarterly multi-client meeting at the Affinia Dumont hotel where all of our retainer clients come and openly discuss the 6 (and in yesterday’s case 7) trends we have identified and outlined for that given quarter.

STEP stands for Strategic Trends Evaluation Process…but also stands for the four trends we look at on a consistent basis: social, technological, economic and political.  This is a client-focused, participatory program that provides our clients with a continuous look at emerging issues in the external environment —  and ultimately, what the trends mean for their customers, members, strategies and operations.

We had a wonderful roster of clients and guests around the table, who actively engaged in an off-the-record discussion of important trends in today’s current environment.  It’s always fascinating to see in what direction the conversation goes, and hear the buzzing of comments around the table.

Additional information on the STEP program is available on our website.  We encourage you to check it out.

Until the next one in September…

We have long said it’s not what you know, but what you are capable of learning.  What we know is the result of the baggage of knowledge we’ve accumulated over time, which helps to shape our views of the world.  But what we are capable of learning is an entirely different story.  In a changing world, one of the ways to be efficient and effective is by not only abandoning all information that is no longer useful, but by abandoning information that is no longer necessary.

When thinking about the change process, the hundredth-monkey effect comes to mind. The hundredth-monkey effect is a supposed phenomenon in which a learned behavior spreads instantaneously from members of one group to all related, once a critical number is reached.  The thought is when a group with a certain set of behaviors becomes large enough, they have an influence on the behavior of other groups, despite any direct contact.  Generally speaking, it refers to the instantaneous spreading of an idea or ability to the remainder of a population once a certain portion of that population has heard of the new idea or learned the new ability.

When a critical mass — the presumed 100th monkey — acquires the skill, the awareness suddenly spreads to every member of the group. Urban legend attributes the rapid spread to paranormal means, while marketers refer to the 100th monkey as the tipping point where enough early adopters have used a product that it finally becomes mainstream.

The 100th Monkey Effect is not only telling in terms of how new business concepts, products and services take hold, but also the ways in which new thoughts and beliefs are transmitted.  To me, the lesson here is this:  We must recognize and revel in what we don’t know in order to discover new things…new possibilities…new realities…and new futures.  Somehow through life’s experiences we put up walls and barriers and forget how to see through new eyes.  Or we are influenced by others and taught to see things in a certain way.   This is just some food for thought, but what is your take on this?