In our work (and detailed in our book FutureThink), we have found that societal events and trends frequently conform to mathematical concepts.  It’s also a tangible way to get your head around large issues, and see the big picture.

The Law of Large Numbers is one of those concepts.  We learn it in high school.  But very few people tend to appreciate the importance of this fundamental mathematical principle.  Basically, put in simple terms, the larger the number of trials, the higher the probability of a statistically projected outcome.  For instance, if you toss a coin 10 times, you might get heads three times and tails seven.  But if you toss it 1,000 times, you are more likely to approach 500 heads and 500 tails.

What this means in a larger context is that the larger the sample, the more likely a critical mass is to develop around outlying probabilities.  Networks grow more powerful as more people connect to it.  In other words, it’s all about critical mass.  Once you have a critical mass, probabilities of everything increase, and more people are attracted to it.  What was once the extreme moves closer to normality.

We see this now in everything from investing to the likelihood of homosexuality to smartphone preferences to female contraception to health insurance to online gaming, etc.  This is also an important factor in projecting the value of niche markets, the trajectory of political causes, the potential for corporate theft, the future of the luxury market, peer pressure, brand loyalty, technological adaptation, financial and consumer products, terrorism, crime and deviance…and the list goes on and on.

But what the Law of Large Numbers does, more than anything, is reduce the possibility for surprise.  It helps you from being caught off-guard.  When you think about the business you are in, how can the Law of Large Numbers teach you more about your consumer/customer base?  How can it impact the work that you do?  Thoughts…