A wealth of emerging data signals a profound shift in our understanding of “contagion.” Traditionally, there are two different paradigms of contagion – On the one hand, researchers have long discussed the concept of contagion from a physiological perspective – someone involuntarily transmits and/or contracts something. On the other hand, marketers are increasingly focused on the social process of “viral” marketing – the means through which consumers consciously and voluntarily virally pass along opinions and attitudes regarding products or services. We now see an emerging hybrid of these two paradigms – an involuntary social contagion developing among people whose interpersonal, psychological and attitudinal characteristics are being passed virally along to others with little or no conscious awareness that it is even happening.

Perhaps most profound is the reality that this social contagion will only increase as social networking and personalized mobile technology continue to become more ubiquitous. The sheer volume of people’s interpersonal connections is increasing by the second; People now have many more surface-level and/or indirect connections than they ever had before. This could be complementing or even replacing the traditional notion of having fewer, but deeper, interpersonal connections. As a result, the average person’s network of “exposure” for social contagion is becoming wider – and connections that lie on the
periphery of that person’s network may still represent a vehicle for social contagion.

Emerging evidence of this dynamic includes the following:
Loneliness can spread among people. People likely catch the loneliness “bug” through negative interactions. An odd look or phrasing by a friend that would not even be noticed by a happy person could be seen as an affront to the lonely, triggering a cycle of negative interactions that cause people to lose friends.

Self-control is contagious. Watching or even thinking about someone with good self-control makes others more likely to show the same restraint, and the opposite is true as well. People tend to mimic the behavior of those around them, and bad habits such as smoking, drug use and obesity tend to spread through social networks. Thinking about someone who exerts self-control by regularly exercising, for example, can make someone more likely to stick with their financial goals, career goals or anything
else that requires self-control.

Blaming mistakes on others is socially contagious. Simply watching someone defer responsibility for their failures to someone else can make a person do the same to protect their own self-image. The result can be detrimental to everyone involved, particularly in the workplace. In organizations where blame is the norm, group members are likely to be less creative and perform poorly.

There is now even evidence surfacing that people exhibit similar physical traits (e.g., obesity) to those people who are as distant as third-degree connections on social networking platforms like Facebook. The implications for this are profound. Regardless of any variables of chance or causality,  the fact that people’s physical traits — and thus the underpinning lifestyles/behaviors — show correlation out to the 3rd degree on ubiquitous platforms like Facebook suggest that social contagion is potentially a very powerful force.

Green concerns have penetrated the global psyche, and people everywhere are increasingly aware because of the multitude of messages geared toward sustainability and conservation.  But, it seems that as people learn more about the environment and climate change, a greater amount of people have turned away from the idea that human activity is responsible for the warming of the planet.

According to a recent New York Times article, climate change in Britain was such a popular priority that in 2008 Parliament enshrined targets for emissions cuts as national law.  But since then, the country has evolved into a home base for a thriving group of climate skeptics who seemed to have convinced many that the threat of warming is vastly exaggerated.

A BBC survey in February found that “only 26 percent of Britons believed that climate change is happening and is now established as largely man-made.”  This is down from 41 percent in November 2009.  Another poll, conducted for the German magazine Der Spiegel found that 42 percent of Germans fearer global warming.  This was down from 62 percent four years earlier.

The lack of enthusiasm about climate change is also true of the United States.  According to a March Gallup poll, 48% of Americans believed that the seriousness of global warming was “generally exaggerated.”  This is up from 41 percent a year ago.

This is just one of many signs that a counter-trend to the green movement is emerging.  For companies and organizations, those who currently see environmentalism as an important social cause, and use it in their cause-related marketing, may increasingly get less traction from this message.  That is because, in the future, the public will expect every organization to be a good environmental citizen, and will look to them to take the lead, making decisions and actions cheaper and easier for members of the public.  At least for now, however, consumers generally expect that companies will accomplish these things without imposing any real burdens on the public.

The number one economic, political and even social issue today – everywhere in the world – is jobs.  As the various parts of the global community come out in different degrees from the recent severe recession, the recovery in too many places is not accompanied by hoped for declines in unemployment and underemployment.

Why is that?  And why are so many “experts” confused about it?  Because, friends, it’s not just a recession; it’s also a TRANSFORMATION, one that is having a profound global impact on what jobs there will be in the future and who will fill them.

Edie Weiner and Arnold Brown will make a special featured presentation on this momentous issue at the World Future Society conference in Boston this summer (July 8 – 10).  They will illuminate the trends and developments that have created the current crisis.  And they will look ahead at what will happen over the coming years – and what could happen, depending on decisions that both governments and individuals make.

This morning, Edie Weiner provided the opening keynote for the Global Spa Summit in Istanbul, Turkey.

Here are some highlights from her talk:

“The world has gone through several fundamental transformations in history: from the Agricultural era to the Industrial era to the Post-Industrial era to our current age, called the “Emotile” (this is also covered in-depth in WEB, Inc. book The Insider’s Guide to the Future).  She calls it that because the current growth industries are about our emotional wants and needs, and the way we operate — from work to communications to household formation — is highly motile.

But we are going through another profound transformation, and we are entering a new era. Edie calls this the Virtual Economy, with all of the new value propositions deriving from an altered dimensionality, and that dimension is space.  This transformation holds a great deal of possibility for redefining sensuality, wellness, leisure, luxury, comfort, belief systems, travel…in short, there are numerous implications for the spa world. This opening session laid out the transformation and many of its consequences,  especially as various businesses and industries contemplate the opportunities and challenges in this first phase of the 21st century.”

Tomorrow, Edie will sum up her thoughts throughout the two days of the Summit, and leave attendees with the ones she feels hold the most promise for the expansion and success of the spa industry. Despite much of the gloom and doom in the world, much of it real and warranted, she will highlight the opportunities that lie ahead in not only being financially successful, but also how people can make a positive impact on their clients, their societies, and even the world at large.

Two events in early May – the bungled attempt to set off a car bomb in Manhattan’s Times Square and the near catastrophe on Wall Street on May 6 – perfectly illustrate what we told our clients in a white paper eight years ago: they will increasingly exist in what we called “an error/terror world.”  The Times Square fiasco was an almost farcical combination of terror and error.  What might have been a massacre was averted largely because of the incompetence of the perpetrator.  There were also additional errors by the FBI and Emirates Airline.

On the stock exchanges on May 6, something triggered a massive sell-off by mindless software programs.  (A human, by the way, would have seen immediately that the sell orders were inappropriate.)

The combination of hate-driven terrorism and incompetency-fueled errors seems likely to increasingly characterize the world we all live in.  In some ways, as in the Times Square incident, they might counteract each other.  But it would not be wise to count on this too much.  It seems more likely, given current trends, that they will reinforce each other, multiplying the potential harm each can cause.

A major contributing factor is the woefully inadequate attention we have paid to the human/machine interface.  The critical need is to make sure that human judgment is not subordinated to speed and efficiency.  As someone once said, efficiency is doing things right, but effectiveness is doing the right things. As what happened on Wall Street demonstrated, software programs are good at the former but not necessarily the latter.  That is why, for at least the foreseeable future, we will have to keep humans in the loop.

Today, Edie Weiner, Jared Weiner and Erica Orange are heading to Turkey for the 2010 Global Spa Summit.  This year’s Summit will examine the spa and wellness industries in relation to outside industries and will explore ideas and opportunities for the future. The agenda will discover bridges to new markets, health and wellness tourism, technology and social networking, architecture and design, all in the context of looking toward the future.

Edie will be the opening keynote speaker for the Summit:

Leading our venture into the future is well-known futurist Edie Weiner, President of Weiner, Edrich, and Brown. One of the most influential “future-focused” analysts, Edie helps high-profile organizations understand complex social, economic, political, and technological transformations. And with the 2010 Summit theme of “Bridges Worth Building,” Edie will empower spa and wellness leaders to identify the right bridges to build, whether to new industries, markets, customer bases, or regions.

Click here to check out the press release issued by the GSS announcing Edie’s keynote.

We look forward to the Summit, learning more about Istanbul, and experiencing some wonderful culture, food…and perhaps even spa treatments!

In response to skyrocketing food prices, more and more people – both at home and at work – are growing their own food.  As a result, sales of vegetable plants and fruit producing trees and shrubs have jumped.  In the United States, spending on vegetable plants rose 21 percent to $58 per household in 2008, and spending on herbs gained 45 percent to $32 . And according to a National Gardening Association survey done in conjunction with Harris, 41 million Americans grew fruits and vegetables in 2009. That’s about 13 percent more than the year before.

Food swapping, in which people barter food for other edibles they don’t have in their own respective pantries, is also gaining in popularity. In London, an annual event called The Great Food Swap attracts hundreds of people looking to exchange their homemade goods. Events such as these also foster a unique sense of community.

But what was once thought of as a backyard pastime, is now gaining in popularity in corporate office backyards, too. As companies have less to spend on raises and health benefits, a fashionable new perk is emerging: the organic corporate vegetable garden. Carved from rolling green office park turf or tucked into containers on rooftops and converted smoking areas, these corporate plots of dirt spring from growing attention to sustainability and a rising interest in gardening. But they also reflect an economy that calls for creative ways to build workers’ morale and health.

For instance, Google, Yahoo and Sunset magazine have all started organic gardens.  But the trend has also caught on at more-traditional companies, too, such as PepsiCo. At the headquarters for the Kohl’s department stores near Milwaukee, the organic gardens provide vegetables for a local food bank and a place for children at the company child care center to play.  Aveda offers on-site massage and organic cafeteria food at its headquarters, and employees can take home fresh produce.

Embedded in all of this is a general concern about food.   Whether related to climate change, water pressures, population growth, changed eating habits, blights, diversion of arable land to production of alternative commodities for uses other than food, mismanagement of resources, waste, alterations of nature or pollution, the pressures on food are mounting, the prices are rising, and the concerns are escalating.

For any organization, there are a number of starting points for discussion and accountability:
•    In what ways do we (our practices, products, services or members) contribute to food waste, and how can that be addressed and combated?
•    In what ways are we encouraging infrastructure development that allows for more efficient and effective delivery of food to those in need?
•    In what ways are we contributing to research and development, and financial accounting and capital deployment, that support the production of food?
•    In what ways are we encouraging people to eat more moderately and reduce their demands for food?
•    In what ways are we encouraging indigenous populations to steward their lands and food resources in more effective ways?

In our work (and detailed in our book FutureThink), we have found that societal events and trends frequently conform to mathematical concepts.  It’s also a tangible way to get your head around large issues, and see the big picture.

The Law of Large Numbers is one of those concepts.  We learn it in high school.  But very few people tend to appreciate the importance of this fundamental mathematical principle.  Basically, put in simple terms, the larger the number of trials, the higher the probability of a statistically projected outcome.  For instance, if you toss a coin 10 times, you might get heads three times and tails seven.  But if you toss it 1,000 times, you are more likely to approach 500 heads and 500 tails.

What this means in a larger context is that the larger the sample, the more likely a critical mass is to develop around outlying probabilities.  Networks grow more powerful as more people connect to it.  In other words, it’s all about critical mass.  Once you have a critical mass, probabilities of everything increase, and more people are attracted to it.  What was once the extreme moves closer to normality.

We see this now in everything from investing to the likelihood of homosexuality to smartphone preferences to female contraception to health insurance to online gaming, etc.  This is also an important factor in projecting the value of niche markets, the trajectory of political causes, the potential for corporate theft, the future of the luxury market, peer pressure, brand loyalty, technological adaptation, financial and consumer products, terrorism, crime and deviance…and the list goes on and on.

But what the Law of Large Numbers does, more than anything, is reduce the possibility for surprise.  It helps you from being caught off-guard.  When you think about the business you are in, how can the Law of Large Numbers teach you more about your consumer/customer base?  How can it impact the work that you do?  Thoughts…

We here at WEB often talk to our clients and conference attendees about the “Evolution of Economies” — a critical understanding of how economies have historically layered on top of each other, while the societies underlying them replace one another. It’s a complex issue to be sure, and one that is way too comprehensive to cover in one blog post. That being said, as we discuss the Evolution of Economies, we talk about how we have entered into (and are continuing to enter into) the emerging “Metaspace” Economy. The Metaspace Economy has sprung upon us at unprecedented speed, as economies are replacing one another at faster rates than ever before. Indeed the pace of change with respect to everything (especially technology) is unlike anything we’ve ever seen.

Within the emerging Metaspace Economy, we have identified 8 distinct “growth areas” for business. They are all conceived within the framework of “space.” And one critical growth area that we talk to many of our clients about is “Design Space,” especially as it pertains to the organizational functions of innovation and product development. The purpose of this post is simply to introduce the concept into the vernacular of our blog, and to set the stage for frequent posts about interesting developments, articles and blogs that we see in the area of Design Space.

A great site for keeping tabs on novel applications that not only adhere to, but expand upon, this new design imperative is The Cool Hunter. The site is broken out into a variety of categories, but “design” is a good place to start for anyone looking to find something novel. While perusing the site, we saw an article about these great portable, modular designs for mini hotel rooms or “sleep boxes.” These have have actually already begun to appear in airports and other locations around the world. Kitschy and unnecessary, or innovative and adherent to both the design imperative and an emerging market need? We know that people are facing time pressures and multitasking more than ever before. You decide…but fascinating nonetheless. More to come…

Last summer, WEB authored an important working paper called The Transposition of East & West. Based on some relevant recent happenings, now is a great time to revisit the theme.

Issue Summary:

Currently,  we are seeing a two-way transposition of not only traditional Western values, traits, and characteristics on Eastern cultures (via “Westernization,” or “Americanization”) – but traditionally Eastern values, traits, and characteristics on Western cultures to an extent perhaps unforeseen in recent times. This bilateral shift is happening in profound ways. Indeed, not only is the world’s economic influence shifting, but core values – as they pertain to civil liberties, religion, education, and technology – are also in flux. Eastern cultures traditionally perceived as more conservative are opening up, while Western cultures traditionally viewed as more progressive are becoming more restrictive.

Putting a macro-lens on the economic portion of this theme, a 2008 report by the National Intelligence Council states among several relative certainties that between now and 2025, the unprecedented shift in relative wealth and economic power from West to East will continue. The report also states that the U.S. will remain the most powerful country in the world, but will be less dominant.

Recent Developments:

Updating this paper, we see that even the core Western tenet that is freedom of expression has been somewhat turned on its head with some important recent developments:

• Here in the U.S, there has been much attention given to the blurred issue of free-speech (or potential lack thereof) in the mass media with the recent South Park furor. There is also the recent resurfacing of the free speech issue — specifically within social media — among those serving in the military as it pertains to criticism of the government.

• Abroad, we have seen some surprising developments in the Middle East, where free speech (particularly as it pertains to religion) has often been quite restrictive. Hissa Hilal, a Saudi Arabian woman recently blasted Muslim clerics on live TV on a program called “Million’s Poet” — an Arabic reality TV program similar to “American Idol,” but instead based in expression through poetry. Hilal has obviously become a very polarizing figure from those who either applaud her bravery or criticize her outspokenness. Regardless, this type of issue would have been virtually unheard of in an Arabic country only a few years ago.

Consider Some Implications…

Implications of this theme are manifold. For example, in our original paper we discussed how many of the world’s largest consumer goods firms have begun adopting the process of “trickle-up innovation.” This entails creating entry-level goods for emerging markets and then repackaging them quickly and cheaply for sale in rich nations, where customers are increasingly hungry for bargains. While this concept is not all that new, it should be reemphasized in the context of this theme. Will execs at global companies fight to retain the more ingrained status quo, or will they embrace trickle-up innovation strategies?

Companies and organizations that operate globally will now have to navigate a new landscape when managing cultural norms within the global workforce, with global professionals, and among the global consumer market. Norms, values, and expectations have shifted. The terms “free market,” “civil liberties,” “innovation” and “gender equality” will be among the many that will no longer conjure up stereotypes of governments, populations, corporations or regions. East/West mixes of management, policymakers, board directors, committee members and marketers, designers and product developers will become extremely beneficial if any significant-sized entity wants to remain nimble and viable as it navigates through this transposition.